The summer of 2023 has been the summer of Saudi. Karim Benzema, Neymar, N’Golo Kante, Ruben Neves & Jordan Henderson are just some of the stars who have joined Cristiano Ronaldo in the Gulf Kingdom in the biggest disruption in the transfer market since the Chinese Super League made a host of moves in 2016/2017. The signings are the direct result of the Saudi Public Investement Fund (PIF) taking a 75% stake in the countries four biggest clubs: Al Nassr, Al Hilal, Al Ittihad, and Al Ahli.

Money of this amount, which doesn’t talk it swears, will certainly bend the ear of many a top level player (and agent). What if that age for making the move gradually lowers, from 33, to 31, to 28. Or the players on the way up, go and secure their family’s future for a number of generations before they dream of traditional titles. As we’ve seen in European Football these things can quickly change. Serie A was King in the 90s, La Liga in the 00s and the Premier League over the last decade. If enough dominoes fall, it won’t be long before the Saudi Professional League becomes the most attractive league in the world.

Of course there are some other factors when it comes to a choice between living in Western Europe and living in Saudi Arabia but the biggest challenge facing the Saudi Pro League (SPL) and a path to footballing dominance, is geography. Saudi Arabia is part of the Asian Football Confederation and this means the AFC Champions League and not the UEFA Champions League.

UEFA President Aleksander Ceferin was bullish in a recent interview with L’Equipe, referencing the Chinese Super League stating that: “It’s not a threat, we saw a similar approach in China,” adding that Saudi Arabian football ‘should work on player and coach development, but that’s not my problem.” He later added: “As far as I know, Mbappe and Haaland don’t dream of Saudi Arabia. I don’t believe that the best players at the pinnacle of their careers would go to Saudi Arabia.”

The primary reason for this is of course that the Champions League remains the priority for all leading clubs and players to compete in. There’s nothing quite like the knockout stages during those lengthening nights of spring in a Munich, a Madrid, even a Manchester.

And it’s an exclusive club that you have to earn your right into every season. Across Europe the race for Champions League spots adds drama to the final weeks of the season. In the summer transfer window it becomes a pivotal selling point as players refuse to consider clubs that are not in the Champions League. The aforementioned Haaland, played the Champions League theme music in his car such was his obsession with the competition.

Many years have passed since the scales tilted so far they may have broken with the competitions previous counterweight in South America, the Copa Libertadores. All roads lead to the Champions League atop football’s pyramid. Ceferin in the same interview referenced above also ruled out the potential of Saudi teams competing in the Champions League.

But is that position unassailable? As we’ve seen in Golf, the disruption to existing structures that can occur. How could we see Al-Ittihad and Al-Hilal mixing it with the Grand Houses of Europe?

Scenario 1: Asian Champions League Grows in Popularity

It’s definitely to consider a world when the focus of World football moves to the East but the AFC as a confederation comprises over half of the planet’s population certainly has potential. From 2024/25 the tournament will streamline into a 24 team tournament which would see the quarter-finals onwards in single elimination matches at a central venue.

These changes will help bridge some of the geographical challenges the tournament currently faces and create a better package for the final stages for broadcasters and viewers alike. Adding the increased star power from the Saudi league and with the potential for teams not only from the SPL but also the J-League, Indian Super League, Australian A-League and Chinese Super League, there’s huge opportunities for tv revenues to increase which in turn could raise the potential for other leagues to attract talent and enhance the overall competitive level of the continent.

Still at a $12M prize pot for the winner, compared to UEFA’s $85M (and total prize pot of $2B), there remains a long way to go for the AFC to catch up. It would require a long term investment in the continent as a whole from the PIF and an assumption that the rest of the Asian confederation could attract and sustain top talent.

Verdict: It’s likely there will be some increases interest across the globe, certainly some viral social media clips too but the gaze of Saudi Arabian football seems to be directed to the West not the East so it seems improbable that this might be the route to topple the Champions League.

Scenario 2: FIFA takes on UEFA

It was to FIFA that the journalists of L’Equipe went to in February 1955 with the idea of a pan-European cup competition. FIFA President Rodolphe Seeldrayers directed them towards the newly formed Union of European Football Associations (UEFA). Initially UEFA declined to sanction the tournament but were forced to backtrack as the competition gathered steam (read More about the tournaments origins in Connecting the Continent).

Since then, UEFA has counted not just their lucky stars but a lot of swiss francs as the European Cup, now the Champions League, retains its position as the most important and most valuable annual football competition on earth.

The two associations have been in a phony war for a number of years now with UEFA looking to increase relations with South America and FIFA making more of a play in the club side. The Qatar World Cup did not go down well in a lot of quarters and there has been informal talk of UEFA breaking away.

FIFA has dipped its toe in the club game beginning with the launch of the Club World Cup in 2000. In 2005 the Intercontinental Cup was absorbed by FIFA and since then the tournament has limped along with the UEFA representative winning every edition bar one since 2007. Notably it was Al Hilal who faced Real Madrid this winter, after they knocked out Flamengo in the semi-finals and this was pre-PIF investment. There will definitely be an edge to this winter’s tournament, with Al-Ittihad qualifying as hosts. Al-Ittihad’s roster includes Benzema, Kante and Fabinho.

From 2025 onwards the tournament will be expanded to 32 teams, mirroring the International World Cup format. 12 European teams will be represented with four spots for the Asian Champions League winners from 2022 to 2025. Al Hilal have already secured one of these spots.

At first glance it does not seem to be too big a threat to UEFA’s hegemony, but it will be the first major event to allow FIFA access to the revenue potential of Europe’s grandest names, and, see those very teams play in a truly competitive environment outside of Europe.

It will be a big step for club football outside of Europe, and the fact the first edition is in the USA, a nation that regularly has crowds in and around six figures watch friendlies every summer will be ensure the event will be well attended.

However every four years would not present enough of an alternative to tempt the best players away and to create an annual version of such an event would obviously present challenges. Real Madrid away to Urawa Red Diamonds is obviously not feasible. But it will certainly whet the appetite.

Verdict: Will likely increase the tension between UEFA and FIFA and perhaps open up some minds about the potential of the game outside of Europe, both commercially and competitively.

Scenario 3: A Saudi Super League

The failed 2021 breakaway Super League was a PR nightmare for all the clubs involved. The timing of the announcement, the half-baked website presence and the identikit press releases showed how hastily put together the whole project had been. With negotiations ongoing on the new Champions League format, clubs struggling financially due to Covid-19 and the ongoing strength of the Premier League, the drivers of the project Real Madrid, FC Barcelona and Juventus felt that they had to act.

It is unlikely that similar mistakes would be made again if clubs attempted to revive the Superleague project. It also may be harder to pull off. The English clubs were quickest to do a U-Turn based on a combination of threats from UEFA, fans and the government. This prompted a bill that promised to create an independent regulator for English football which is expected to be put in place for the 2024/25 season. However in the intervening period PIF have acquired a spot at the Premier League and Champions League discussion table through their acquisition of Newcastle United.

FIFA President Gianni Infantino has spoke of his desire to create a pan-African Superleague, for which nothing has yet come to fruition but one wonders whether it may be used as a blueprint for other confederations, if it came to pass.

There’s no doubt that the PIF would have the capacity to create a Superleague and guarantee revenues to the clubs involved. That the Saudi Arabian FA is cultivating greater influence with FIFA likely to culminate in a bid for the 2034 World Cup. As mentioned previously the FIFA and UEFA relationship continues to be strained. Could this open a window for the PIF to approach some of Europe’s largest clubs?

Alternatively, similar to how they started attracting smaller names to begin with in the LIV golf project perhaps they may target some of the continents largest clubs in nearby states: Galatasaray, Fenerbahce, Olympiakos, Panathanikos, Al Ahly, Raja Casablanca or even further afield, the likes of Benfica, Porto Celtic, Rangers, Ajax, PSV. Or maybe even a Wolves or Valencia decides that the path to the top of the Premier League or La Liga is too arduous.

Maybe players would be willing to forego the international game for a lighter schedule and, for want of a better phrase, boatloads of money. Maybe some bigger clubs (with American or Middle Eastern owners) looking for financial security will take the plunge

Once formed, similar to the LIV merger with the PGA, it may allow the option to crowbar their way into the establishment, gain some concessions from UEFA, perhaps a group stage spot for their winner every year.

Verdict: This seems the most likely avenue for Saudi Arabia to gain more influence in elite football. It will need to be created via disruption in existing structures, but it will still be a difficult project to pull off. Clubs are likely to tread very carefully over Super League discussions and there are a number of sanctioning challenges to negotiate.

Perhaps they will be content with attracting stars to their own league and purchasing clubs across Europe. However the majority of their sporting endeavors to date have been about showcasing Saudi Arabia, about increasing the state’s presence globally. It will want the eyes of the World on its Kingdom.

It is likely the coming years will be spent on increasing the profile of the SPL, of more raids on Europe’s best players and an attempt to win the Club World Cup. Perhaps then UEFA or FIFA will feel they have to act, to maintain their own livelihoods.

Maybe Mr Ceferin will regret being so bold.